New Single Family Housing Starts Down Substantially
The difference between 2007 and 2008 new family housing starts is amazing and gives a good indication at just how slow the market was in 2008. In Ravalli County for instance, starts were down to 197 from 303 in 2007, a decrease of 34.98%. Missoula County's situation isn't nearly as gloomy, with a decline of 21.46% from 233 to 183 units in 2008. This doesn't include building in the City of Missoula though, where 293 homes were built in 2007 and only 186 in 2008 (a decline of 36.52%). Overall, I think new construction slowed a little more than sales in general, so we should begin to see some of the excess inventory get sold and absorption rates fall to more normal levels, especially in light of the stronger market in the first quarter of 2009.
Stats were taken from the Montana Builder, 4th Qtr Ed.
Stats were taken from the Montana Builder, 4th Qtr Ed.
Very interesting, Ryon. What's your sense of the first quarter of 2009?
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Great question Judy! I think the market is still down, in terms of unit volume, substanitally from 2007 (30+%), and certainly from 2006, but we did see see that seasonal surge in activity that's always been present in the first quarter, it's just not as robust as it has in the past. To me that means the market is still functioning, just a slower pace. I don't have number yet just for new home starts, but I'll bet that segment is improving as well. Overall, the unemployment rate in Missoula County is hovering at just under 7%, and while that's much higher than its been in the past, it's still not to bad. So a fairly stable employment picture, coupled with low, low interest rates and first-time-buyer tax incentives should all combine to help keep the market moving.
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